Thursday, October 23, 2008



From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carrie Dann

*** Swing states swinging to Obama: Most of the national polls -- including our NBC/WSJ survey -- are now showing Obama with a double-digit national lead. And here come a slew of brand-new state polls that also suggest Obama is in command of this presidential contest. The University of Wisconsin’s Big Ten Battleground polls have Obama up 10 points in Indiana (51%-41%), 13 points in Iowa (52%-39%), 22 in Michigan (58%-36%), 19 in Minnesota (57%-38%), 12 in Ohio (53%-41%), 11 in Pennsylvania (52%-41%), 13 in Wisconsin (53%-40%), and nearly 30 in Obama’s home state of Illinois (61%-32%). Meanwhile, there are new Quinnipiac surveys that show Obama up five points in Florida (49%-44%), 14 in Ohio (52%-38%), and 13 in Pennsylvania (53%-40%). And finally, new CNN/Time surveys find Obama ahead by five points among likely voters in Nevada (51%-46%), four points in North Carolina (51%-47%), four in Ohio (50%-46%), and 10 points in Virginia (54%-44%). The lone state survey that shows McCain ahead: CNN/Time’s West Virginia poll, where McCain’s nine ahead (53%-44%).


I find this very encouraging after seeing yesterday's headline about the race tightening. If the McCain campaign starts in with nasty ads like more Reverend Wright stuff, I think it might take a few points off of Obama's poll leads but not enough to get some of those indicators into the margin of error. It increasingly appears that McCain will have to "run the table" of toss-up states in order to win the election. MC Fred was saying in the comment section of an earlier blogpost that he would be surprised if Obama didn't get at least 300 electoral votes. I will still only believe an Obama win when I see it. There are still 12 days to go until the election. However, as the days slip by, I think things look better and better for the Democrats.


Blogger 1138 said...

I think we could see a 300+ win.
But only if people don't get too sure.
Eight years in hell, we won't get out of it in a day and it would be very easy to get four more in hell.

2:43 PM  
Blogger Tom Harper said...

Yes, it really is "getting better, a little better all the time."

And I've had that song running through my head ever since I first read your post title.

3:59 PM  
Blogger J. Marquis said...

I'm optimistic but still nervous. One of the writers from the Simpsons was on the Bill Maher show the other night and he said he won't be able to relax until Obama's third year in office.

4:50 PM  
Blogger Mandelbrot's Chaos said...

You're going to hate me for this, and I won't blame you, but I'm going to quote Bobby McFerrin: "Don't worry, be happy." With the current polling, I would consider anything less than a 325 EV win by Obama an upset. The robocalls are backfiring, or at least not swaying many, and the list of major GOP defectors grows by the hour. Senator McCain now knows exactly how the violinists felt as the Titanic sank. Don't take it for granted, yes, but look at the board. My state may go red, but there's a serious potential for a blue shocker in Indiana and Georgia, with Saxby Chambliss bringing down the GOP ticket there. In real terms, I think we're seeing a reverse 1980.

7:01 PM  
Blogger Snave said...

Man I hope you're right, MC!!! And damn you for getting that earworm of a song stuck in my head!!! 8-) 8-) 8-)

7:22 PM  

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