Thursday, October 23, 2008
FIRST THOUGHT: DOUBLE DIGITS
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Carrie Dann
*** Swing states swinging to Obama: Most of the national polls -- including our NBC/WSJ survey -- are now showing Obama with a double-digit national lead. And here come a slew of brand-new state polls that also suggest Obama is in command of this presidential contest. The University of Wisconsin’s Big Ten Battleground polls have Obama up 10 points in Indiana (51%-41%), 13 points in Iowa (52%-39%), 22 in Michigan (58%-36%), 19 in Minnesota (57%-38%), 12 in Ohio (53%-41%), 11 in Pennsylvania (52%-41%), 13 in Wisconsin (53%-40%), and nearly 30 in Obama’s home state of Illinois (61%-32%). Meanwhile, there are new Quinnipiac surveys that show Obama up five points in Florida (49%-44%), 14 in Ohio (52%-38%), and 13 in Pennsylvania (53%-40%). And finally, new CNN/Time surveys find Obama ahead by five points among likely voters in Nevada (51%-46%), four points in North Carolina (51%-47%), four in Ohio (50%-46%), and 10 points in Virginia (54%-44%). The lone state survey that shows McCain ahead: CNN/Time’s West Virginia poll, where McCain’s nine ahead (53%-44%).
I find this very encouraging after seeing yesterday's msn.com headline about the race tightening. If the McCain campaign starts in with nasty ads like more Reverend Wright stuff, I think it might take a few points off of Obama's poll leads but not enough to get some of those indicators into the margin of error. It increasingly appears that McCain will have to "run the table" of toss-up states in order to win the election. MC Fred was saying in the comment section of an earlier blogpost that he would be surprised if Obama didn't get at least 300 electoral votes. I will still only believe an Obama win when I see it. There are still 12 days to go until the election. However, as the days slip by, I think things look better and better for the Democrats.